Accuracy Test of Technical Analysis Using Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, Moving Average Convergence Divergence, and Relative Strength Index on Stock Price of Companies Listed in The Infobank15 Index

Abstract

Technical analysis indicators are widely used by investors to support investment decisions. This study aims to evaluate the accuracy of Ichimoku, MACD, and RSI as guidelines for predicting stock price movements and identifying buy–sell signals. Beyond relying on indicators, traders are also advised to maintain discipline, effective money management, and a strong trading psychology. The research focuses on Infobank15 index stocks observed from August to December 2023, using secondary data from the TradingView platform. Predictive signals and actual prices were collected from daily (D1) closing prices and analyzed using the documentation method. To test the accuracy of each indicator, the Mann-Whitney non-parametric test was employed to compare predictive signals against actual prices statistically. The results indicate that there is no significant difference between the predictive signals of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and MACD indicators compared to actual prices. Ichimoku and MACD are declared accurate. However, the study reveals a disparity between the predicted prices generated by the RSI and actual prices. Therefore, RSI are declared inaccurate. Based on the analysis and comparison of the three indicators in terms of the number of signals, percentage accuracy of signals, and average return rates, it can be concluded that the MACD indicator delivers a more favorable return rate compared to the other two indicators. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is more effective at minimizing risks, while the RSI is the only indicator in this study that proved to be inaccurate.