Does Dividend Payment Generate a Market Signal to Investors?

Abstract

In perfect market theory, the information will provide signals that are reflected in stock price movements. In the context of dividend payments, these theories are still debatable. Dividend payments will please shareholders as prosperity increases. But not sharing profits can also give a positive signal. The purpose of this study is to see if dividend payment able to give a positive signal on rising stock prices. The research will also look at whether profitability, leverage, asset growth, and interest rates also signal rising stock prices. Logistic regression analysis is applied to answer the research objectives. Purposive sampling is based on retail companies that specialize in the category of supermarkets and minimarkets that have been listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2013 to 2022. The results of this research conclude that dividend payments give a positive signal on rising stock prices. The chance of a stock price increase is 4.7 times compared to a company that does not pay dividends. Interest rates also inform investors to be careful in making investment decisions. Investors are only willing to bear additional risk if the expected profit is above the risk premium. Information on the company's financial performance such as profitability, leverage, and asset growth is not significant on the increase in stock price. This means that it does not provide signals for investors.