Production Results Forecasting Using Linier Regression Methods In UMKM KWT Suka Maju

Authors

  • Heriyanto Heriyanto Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Yogyakarta
  • Yuli Fauziah Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Yogyakarta
  • Dyah Ayu Irawati Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Yogyakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31098/ess.v1i1.92

Keywords:

forecasting, produce, craftsmen, linear regression, internet

Abstract

Kelompok Wanita Tani (KWT) SUKAMAJU is a women's association in Palihan village, Bambanglipuro sub-district. The KWT activities include monthly social gatherings, savings, and loans, gardening by growing vegetables and family medicinal plants in the KWT Sukamaju garden, regular monthly meetings for agricultural extension agents, and food production. The community service team assists in the form of increasing production by supporting production equipment which is considered to be still long for large quantities of products and multimedia and internet-based marketing as a means of establishing marketing communications for the group of craftsmen for processing banana tree food made by KWT Sukamaju. Amid the physical distancing period of the Covid-19 pandemic, community visits to the field as the only marketing communication channel must stop. The use of internet marketing means to spur production to be fast and in large numbers. The difficulty of producing such large quantities is constrained by the tools and the processing time that must be fast due to a large number of orders from the internet. Data retrieval is taken from the use of production equipment for 30 days. Every day with an intensity of 3 times every 3 until 4 hours for 6 months. The total sample is 180 data samples every three times to 540 data. The test using linear regression before and after adding equipment for the production of KWT UMKM has an average result of 56.54% of the estimate after being given additional equipment of 55.63%. The result is between estimation and reality after using production tools, after and before using the tool close to an accurate estimate of between 56, 5% with 55.6% have only a 0.9% difference in error. Based on the results of the prediction of KWT production rates using simple linear regression, it can be concluded that the addition of the data production tools used to produce has a big effect, and predictions are close to accuracy using time series data, which greatly affect the accuracy of prediction calculations.

References

Arifin, Y & Ricky, MY & Yesmaya, V, 2015, Digital Multimedia, Bina Nusantara Media & Publishing

Dewi, Ni Luh AFM. 2011. Pengaruh Usaha Kelompok Wanita Tani “Mekar Usaha” terhadap Pendapatan Keluarga di Banjar Dinas Saren Kauh, Desa Budakeling. Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha, Singaraja.

Ekaningdyah, Astrid. 2005. Peran Wanita dalam Peningkatan Pendapatan Keluarga Nelayan di Desa Tasikagung, Kecamatan Rembang, Kabupaten Rembang, Jawa Tengah. Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang.

Hijriani Astria, Kurnia Muludi, Erlina Ain Andini, 2016, Implementasi Metode Regresi Linier Sederhana Pada Penyajian Hasil Prediksi Pemakaian Air Bersih Pdam Way Rilau Kota Bandar Lampung Dengan Sistem Informasi Geofrafis, Jurnal Informatika Mulawarman Vol. 11 No. 2, September 2016 37 ISSN 1858-4853

Katemba, Petrus, dan Rosita Koro Djoh, 2017, Prediksi Tingkat Produksi Kopi Menggunakan Regresi Linear, Jurnal Ilmiah FLASH Volume 3 Nomor 1 Juni 2017

Sasongko, AK., 2012, diunduh dari e-journal.uajy.ac.id pada 23 Maret 2018, pukul 09.33 WIB

Tahalea, Silviana, 2016, Fotografi Produk Sebagai Sarana Promosi Produk Lampu untuk Perajin Lampu di Nitiprayan Yogyakarta. Seminar Nasional Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat-Fakultas Seni Rupa dan Desain Universitas Trisakti.

Wulandari, NT & Darwanto, DH & Irham, 2015, Analysis of Added Value and Contribution of Bamboo Craft Industry to Society's Income Distribution Sleman District, Agro Ekonomi Vol. 26/No. 2

Yahya, Kurnia, 2018, Alir Proses Produksi Produk Multimedia, diunduh dari http://kurnia.nireblog.com pada 23 Maret 2018, pukul 09.33 WIB

Downloads

Published

2020-10-27

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 1 (1): October 2020

Section

Articles

License

Copyright Notice 

1. Author and Manuscript

  • The author whose name appear in the above statement is declaring that he/she is the author of the stated manuscript
  • All of the authors, if any, has already aware of this agreement and give consent for the mentioned name to act on their behalf


2. Validity

  • The author stated that the manuscript is original and has never been published elsewhere.
  • The author has obtained permissions from other contributors, if any
  • The author has specifically mentioned and cited all external materials properly
  • Note: External materials refers to any material, writings, figures, tables, illustrations, or any other materials which is not being produced, made, or patented by the author
  • The author holds the sole responsible should there are any mistyping; unclear citation and holds responsible should there are any inappropriate manners such as unlawful, breaches, obscene, or any other reasons which are not aligned with the law and norm.

3. Deliverable of Manuscript and Other Materials

  • The Contributor/Author shall deliver their manuscript using the provided and acceptable format (doc. Or docx) in the assigned date as well as author copyright document signed.
  • Inability delivering the manuscript in the stated date and format will affecting the publication process thus, The Publisher have the rights to reject the manuscript and terminate the letter of acceptance or letter of offerings
  • Author is responsible to deliver the manuscript using the provided format. Note: All of the figures, tables, illustrations, or any other materials that will be inserted in the manuscript need to be in high quality
  • Should the author decided to alter the manuscript format, the fee will be charged and bore by authors

The Author give “Yayasan Sinergi Riset dan Edukasi” (here forth known as RSF Press) the unlimited right to publish the contribution identified above, without any restraints, in any form, at any time, directly or through others, to reproduce, transmit, archive, lease/lend, sell and distribute the contribution or parts thereof individually or together with other works in any language, revision and version (digital and hard), including reprints, translations, photographic reproductions, microform, audiograms, videograms, electronic form (offline, online), or any other reproductions of similar nature, including publication in the aforementioned book or any other book, as well as, the usage for advertising purposes. RSF Press will ensure that the Author’s name(s) is/are always clearly associated with the manuscript, and the publishers will not make any substantial change to the manuscript without consulting the author and ask for their consent. RSF Press is also entitled to carry out editorial changes in the contribution with the sole purpose of enhancing the overall organization and form of the contribution.

The Author retains the rights to publish the contribution in his/her own web site and thesis, in his/her employer’s web site and to publish a similar or revised version elsewhere, as long as it is clearly stated that the contribution was presented first RSF Press and the corresponding DOI is associated with the contribution.